AssetClassic 2024 Classic and Collectible Car Sector Review

The classic car market witnessed a year of transition in 2024, as broader economic challenges and shifting collector dynamics tempered the growth seen in previous years. The AssetClassic Auction Index (ACAI), a key benchmark for market performance, highlighted this change with a year-end decline of approximately 3.5%, reflecting mixed results throughout the year. Despite these fluctuations, global auction sales exceeded $4 billion, underscoring the market’s enduring resilience.

Several defining trends emerged. Modern classics from the 2000s experienced a 8% increase in value, largely driven by younger collectors reshaping demand. In contrast, pre-war vehicles faced an 11% decline. Geographic and brand-specific trends also influenced outcomes. U.S. auction houses demonstrated stability, while European markets struggled, particularly for iconic brands like Alfa Romeo, Maserati, and Aston Martin, reflecting broader challenges faced by these manufacturers.

The auction market offered further insights into collector behavior and market dynamics. Online auction platforms, which had lately been growing significantly over the last 5 years, plateaued this year, signaling potential saturation and the need for further innovation. In contrast, high-end auctions still flourished, with landmark sales such as a 1963 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider fetching $17.875 million, setting a new record for its category. The top-tier segment’s resilience highlights the growing importance of provenance, authenticity, and rarity in commanding premium values.

The future of the classic car market will hinge on balancing innovation with preservation. Engaging younger collectors, leveraging technology, and addressing regulatory challenges will be critical for sustaining momentum. Despite the challenges of 2024, the market remains a captivating and resilient asset class.

In the rest of this message, in the spirit of reflecting on 2024, we’ll cover five topics:

1. Classic and collectible car values: a look at how valuations have progressed

2. Auction market: an overview of the 2024 trends in the auction market for classic and collectible cars

3. Notable auction results: top 10 results and what they tell us about collector interests

4. Industry-shaping events: an overview of the top new events and sector activity such as M&A

5. 2025 outlook: a brief look at what 2025 may have in store for our sector

Wishing you a joyful and prosperous 2025 from the AssetClassic team!

1. Classic and collectible car values

The AssetClassic Auction Index (ACAI) includes classic and collector vehicles made before 2010s, with a focus on those valued above $20,000. While the data goes back to the 1970s, the index starts in Jan 2002 at 100. ACAI is updated monthly and based solely on auction results, with no manual adjustments.

In 2024, ACAI reflected a year of market correction amidst broader economic challenges and global uncertainty – including the presidential elections in the United States. After years of steady growth, the index experienced a decline of 3.5%, marking a notable shift from previous trends. The first half of the year saw moderate growth of around 3%, bolstered by a strong start in the auction season. However, the third quarter presented significant challenges, with ACAI recording a 3% drop – the fourth-worst Q3 performance since 2002 – largely influenced by weaker-than-expected results during key events like Monterey Car Week. Despite these challenges, strong results from events such as Bonham’s Zoute Sale and an active final quarter have kept the year-end outlook from a much sharper decline.

Vehicles from the 2000s continued their upward trajectory, recording an 8% increase for the year. This growth was driven by younger collectors’ heightened interest and investment in models from this decade. Cars from the 1990s and 1980s also saw increases of 5%, reflecting solid demand for these eras. Vehicles from the 1970s displayed moderate growth at 3%, signaling steady interest. Conversely, pre-war vehicles experienced a steep 11% decline, highlighting the ongoing challenges in sustaining demand for older models. The 1950s and 1960s faced declines of 8% and 7%, respectively, further contributing to the ACAI’s overall dip. The primary drivers behind the overall decline in the ACAI were the weak performance of pre-war vehicles and the softening in mid-tier segments, particularly from the 1980s and 1990s. In contrast, the relative stability of post-2000 cars helped mitigate steeper losses, highlighting their growing importance in maintaining the broader market's health.

The ACAI’s breakdown by make showed some disparities. Ford led the market with a remarkable 22% increase in value, reaffirming its appeal among collectors. Chevrolet and Porsche demonstrated modest growths of 5% and 3%, respectively, maintaining their positions as popular choices. On the other hand, Jaguar suffered the steepest decline at 22%, reflecting a challenging year for the brand. Alfa Romeo, Aston Martin, and Maserati also faced considerable declines of 22%, 16%, and 14%, respectively. Ferrari, Lamborghini, and Mercedes-Benz - all iconic names in the collector market - experienced declines, marking a cooling-off period following prior strong performances.

Regionally, the United States makes demonstrated resilience, supported by Ford’s exceptional performance. European makes, however, saw a 10% decline, with the UK makes facing particularly significant challenges, as illustrated by Jaguar’s and Aston Martin’s poor results. Italian makes also experienced an 8% decline, driven largely by struggles from Alfa Romeo and Ferrari.

2. Auction market

The AssetClassic database includes over 750,000 recorded auction results from more than 50 leading global auction houses. It predominantly focuses on public auction data on automobile sales and excludes private sales, post-auction transactions, and other categories such as automobilia and motorcycles.

The global auction market for collectible cars has shown impressive long-term growth, with a 17% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years and 11% over the past decade, reflecting the increasing value of cars auctioned. However, 2024 marked a slight deviation from this upward trend, with a modest decline of 5% in the total value of cars auctioned. Despite this dip, the market remains robust, exceeding $4 billion in total sales. The primary driver of the decline lies in falling average auction prices, which dropped by approximately 5%, even as the total number of cars auctioned saw a slight increase (less than 1%). This suggests that while demand remains strong, buyer preferences and valuations have shifted, as explored in the preceding valuation analysis.

The online auction market, once a rapidly growing segment, has shown signs of significant deceleration this year. Over the past five years, online auctions experienced near 50% average annual growth, which tapered to 20% over the last three years and ultimately flattened in the past year. This trend is evident across all major online-focused auction platforms, suggesting that the market may be nearing a saturation point for this business model. Future growth in this segment will likely depend on further innovation and may come at the expense of other sales channels, including online listings, traditional dealers, and private sales. Additionally, the continued decline in average prices of cars auctioned online – relative both to offline auctions and to valuation indices – underscores the growing challenges facing the online auction space.

Across the key regions in the market, the U.S. remains the dominant force in the collectible car auction sector, driving volumes and maintaining a steady trajectory of growth. Well-established U.S. auction houses have demonstrated consistent increases in auction values over the past few years, even without significant changes in the number of cars sold, reflecting a robust market where individual prices continue to rise driven by strong demand and interest in the asset class. In contrast, Europe has experienced a notable decline, with market volume dropping by 10% and the UK facing even steeper declines on the back of economic pressures. Additionally, the European market has seen a sharp decrease in average auction prices as it shifts away from high-end, specialty models toward more mass-market offerings, a trend increasingly reflective of the broader U.S. and UK markets.

The strategic focus of most prominent auction houses remains firmly on the upper side of the market, evidenced by the growing number of cars sold at auction for over $500,000. The trend underscores the sustained demand for high-value collectibles, where the competition among affluent buyers continues to drive strong results. The emphasis on premium assets aligns with the broader market's resilience at the top end, even as mid-tier segments face pressure from shifting economic conditions.

The longstanding trend of decreasing average car ages in auctions, which began more than a decade ago, appears to have reached a plateau. In 2024, the weighted average age of auctioned cars stabilized at approximately 39 years, after a steady decline from a peak of over 50 years in the early 2010s. This stabilization reflects a balance between the enduring appeal of classic vehicles and the increasing presence of cars from the 2000s and newer in the auction market.

3. Notable auction results

The top 10 vehicles sold at auction in 2024 highlight interesting dynamics in the collector car market. While RMS Sotheby’s continues to dominate with the highest representation in the list, the spread across multiple auction houses – Mecum, Gooding, and others – demonstrates a relatively diverse performance in achieving record-breaking sales. This diversity underscores the increasing global nature of the market, with major sales occurring in venues ranging from Monterey to Dubai, reflecting the demand spread across different regions.

An interesting observation to highlight is the age profile of the top 10 cars. Despite the growing trend towards youngtimers and modern hypercars, this list proves that when it comes to the highest price bucket, it’s the classics that reign. Only one vehicle in the top 10, the 2014 Pagani Zonda LM Roadster, was manufactured in the last 45 years. The remaining entries are mainly pre-1970s icons, including the 1938 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B Lungo Spider, the 1955 Ferrari 410 Sport Spider, and the 1903 Mercedes-Simplex 60 HP ‘Roi des Belges,’ which collectively reflect a market appreciating automotive history, craftsmanship, and provenance. This trend reinforces a critical message: while younger cars are increasingly popular and driving broader market trends, the “heavy hitters” that achieve top-dollar sales are almost exclusively historic vehicles.

The inclusion of a single modern hypercar amidst this pantheon of classics – the Pagani Zonda LM Roadster – highlights the rarity with which contemporary cars break into the most elite auction results. This reinforces the idea that while modern hypercars capture the imagination of many, it is the irreplaceable nature of historic icons that truly captivates the collector world at the highest level.

4. Industry-shaping events

4.1 Inaugural edition of The Classics Forum

The Classics Forum 2024 marked a groundbreaking moment for the classic car industry. The event, organized by AssetClassic in collaboration with McKinsey & Company, was held in the heart of Italy's Motor Valley, at Tenuta di Roncolo, our event partner. As the first event of its kind, the Forum brought together a unique mix of collectors, OEMs, industry professionals, and opinion leaders to engage in sector discussions. Over three days, participants explored the key challenges and pain points facing the sector across the value chain, shared their experiences, identified trends, and brainstormed solutions to create, structure, and defend value in the classic car market. The event featured exclusive plenary sessions, roundtables, and networking opportunities, alongside a dynamic public day with a hill climb, exhibitions, and educational sessions. By fostering meaningful dialogue and engagement across the entire value chain, the Classics Forum set a new standard for industry collaboration, establishing itself as a visionary platform for the future of classic cars.

During the Classics Forum, among the topics discussed, the results of McKinsey’s 2024 Collectible Car Survey were presented. The Survey involved hundreds of collectors, traders, dealers, enthusiasts, and other players in the classic car sector, across USA, Europe, and Asia. It revealed key insights into collector and professional behavior, as well as industry challenges. In particular, some of the key messages are gathered below:

• The main reason identified for owning classic cars was personal enjoyment from driving them, followed by their strong investment potential, and finally by the social component.

• The Survey highlighted the importance of sharing this passion, with most respondents regularly involving close relationships such as significant others (37%), personal friends (29%), or children (34%), with only 13% of participants expressing a preference for enjoying their passion alone

• Additionally, the Survey highlighted how collectors stay connected to the classic car community, with social media proving highly relevant for all age groups. As one would expect, younger collectors favored platforms such as online forums and social media, while those over 40 showed a stronger preference for in-person car gatherings, events, and clubs, emphasizing the enduring appeal of physical interactions.

• One of the key chapters of the Survey aimed to explore the challenges, issues, and concerns of respondents. Notably, trust in sellers, vehicle condition transparency, and storage proved to be the most common concerns across all sector players.

• In terms of choosing cars to purchase, among several interesting insights, it stood out that larger collectors mainly prioritize strict authenticity in restoration, though many may accept modifications to grant the vehicle increased performance or reliability.

• Finally, the Survey explored the perception of the sector’s future outlook across all segments. Professionals in particular, such as traders and resellers, highlighted a shift towards more sophisticated offerings and activities beyond trading. Overall, they reported to be viewing the sector’s future positively, particularly as the increasing number of Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals drive demand.

4.2 New developments in the auction business – price guarantees

One of the most significant recent developments in the sector is Broad Arrow's introduction of a guaranteed minimum price model. Such model is similar to known practices in the art auction market, where auction houses offer guarantees to encourage consignments and provide sellers with confidence. It has been used since the early 1970s to stimulate the market and assure sellers of a minimum return. In practice, this approach ensures sellers receive at least the predetermined amount for their vehicles, regardless of auction outcomes. If a car sells above the guarantee, the transaction proceeds as usual; if it falls short, the auction houses compensates the difference. This model offers sellers financial security, attracting more lots and higher-value consignments, and potentially enabling a larger number of “no reserve” lots, which in turn attracts buyers. Moreover, appraisers and valuation experts could see an increased demand for accurate valuations to set appropriate guarantees. Overall, as seen in the art market, this model has the potential to impact the sector on a large scale if successful, as it would benefit buyers, sellers, auction houses, appraisers, and possibly financing providers.

However, the use of guarantees can also impact the dynamism of live auctions, as pre-arranged guarantees may lead to sales that align closely with the guaranteed amounts, potentially reducing the excitement of competitive bidding.

Overall, Broad Arrow's implementation of guaranteed minimum prices reflects a strategic move to enhance seller confidence and market stability, with various implications for financial institutions, service providers, and participants in the auction ecosystem.

4.3 M&A among key sector players - the trend continues

As any sector matures and professionalizes, a trend of consolidation increases. We’ve seen much of this happen over the last years in classic and collectible cars – in the auction market, trade, insurance and events. 2024 has been marked by further strategic investments by key industry players.

One of the key industry events of 2024 was Gooding’s acquisition by Christie’s. Established in 1766, Christie’s has a rich history in auctioning fine art, antiques, jewelry, and luxury goods. Although it exited the classic car market in 2007, the auction house has continued to sell automobiles as part of specific collections. Gooding & Company, founded in 2003 by David Gooding, who previously served as the head of Christie’s car department, has since established itself as a leading auction house in the collector car market, particularly renowned for handling high-profile auctions. This strategic acquisition marks Christie’s return to the classic car market, aiming to diversify its offerings amid a weakening art market. By integrating Gooding & Company's expertise, Christie’s is poised to enhance its position, potentially increasing competition and elevating standards within the industry. At the closing of acquisition procedures, Gooding & Company will be rebranded as Gooding Christie’s, serving as the automotive department of the parent company.

Another key M&A event was the investment by Ferrari Family Investments into Cavallino Inc. The company is dedicated to the world of Ferrari, publishing the bimonthly Cavallino Magazine, regarded as an authoritative source on classic Ferraris. It also organizes the Cavallino Classic, the world's largest event solely devoted to Ferrari automobiles, held annually in Palm Beach since 1992. In recent years, the event has expanded globally with editions in Modena, Abu Dhabi, and an upcoming event in Sydney. This investment signifies a deepening of the Ferrari family's involvement in preserving and promoting the legacy of Enzo Ferrari. Enzo Mattioli Ferrari, descendant of Enzo Ferrari, in his active role as President of Cavallino is expected to enhance the company's leadership in the vintage car world, leveraging his expertise and passion to further strengthen its position. The collaboration aims to foster a greater appreciation for Ferrari's heritage and support the continued growth of the vintage car sector. Luigi Orlandini, who has led Cavallino's growth over the past four years since its acquisition by Canossa, continues to serve as Chairman of the Board of Directors and CEO, working alongside Enzo Mattioli Ferrari to advance the company's mission. This strategic partnership underscores the Ferrari family's commitment to safeguarding and promoting the brand's rich history, ensuring that the legacy of the Prancing Horse endures for future generations.

Another major developments in the sector this year involves Petrolicious, a premier news and information platform for classic and collector car enthusiasts, renowned for its high-quality storytelling and films. In the past few years, the company changed ownership twice, leading to its acquisition in 2024 by duPont Registry Group (DRG), a leader in luxury automotive lifestyle media. This strategic move aimed to integrate Petrolicious's exceptional film and media content into DRG's expanding luxury-driven community. DRG's CEO, Antoine Tessier, emphasized that Petrolicious's unparalleled storytelling would complement DRG's offerings, marking a return to the core elements that made Petrolicious a pioneer in the high-end enthusiast world. Following the acquisition, DRG announced initiatives to revitalize the Petrolicious brand, including the launch of a film competition inviting enthusiasts to submit films about their love for cars. This initiative aims to engage the audience and discover new talent in automotive storytelling. In October 2024, Michael Chapin was appointed as CEO of Petrolicious, bringing his expertise to lead the brand into its next chapter. These developments underscore Petrolicious's enduring appeal and its significant role in automotive culture, as it continues to evolve under new leadership and ownership within the luxury automotive media landscape. As classic car aficionados and avid Petrolicious content consumers, we couldn’t be more excited about the recent developments, and we are looking forward to seeing their new chapter.

The merger of Iconic Auctioneers and Classic Car Auctions (CCA) in October 2024 is worth mentioning as a development in the classic car auction market, as it combines Iconic’s premium reputation with CCA’s expertise in mid-market auctions. The rebranded "Classic Sales by Iconic Auctioneers" will broaden the company’s reach and service offerings, including online timed sales, motorcycle auctions, and private transactions, also enhancing lot visibility for sellers. The merger clearly shows interesting opportunities for the two players, such as expanding into mid-tier auctions without diluting Iconic's high-end appeal, expanding geographic reach and fostering cross-border transactions, as well as exploring partnerships with dealerships, restoration experts, and lifestyle brands. This consolidation aligns with broader industry trends, following the need for digital transformation and market efficiency. On the other hand, sustained consolidation in the sector will also mean higher barriers to entry for smaller players.

4.4 New and interesting events in 2024

Last year saw further geographic expansion of the sector, in particular across key Asian markets, through both new events and new editions of classic brands.

The inaugural Oberoi Concours d'Elegance, held in February 2024, at The Oberoi Udaivilas in Udaipur, India, marked a significant milestone in the global Concours d'Elegance arena. The event showcased an exceptional array of vintage and classic automobiles and motorcycles, including rare models once owned by Indian royalty and prominent collectors. Sandra Button, Chairperson of Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance, served as Chief Judge, underscoring the event's international stature. The event's success was further solidified when it received the 'Breakthrough Event of the Year' award at the International Historic Motoring Awards 2024 in London, recognizing its outstanding contribution to the global historic motoring community and elevating India's profile in the world of classic and vintage automobiles. The Oberoi Concours not only celebrated India's automotive legacy but also underscored the nation's growing influence in the global collector car community, setting a new benchmark for elegance and excellence in the region.

This year the 1000 Miglia made its inaugural appearance in China, from November 13 to 17, 2024, with the “1000 Miglia Experience China”. This historic event was held in Guangdong province, specifically in the Guangzhou area, a region notable for being the first in China to establish trade relations with Europe. The event featured six distinct classes of cars, beginning with the "1000 Miglia Era" class. Fulvio D’Alvia, who this year took over the role of CEO of 1000 Miglia Srl, explained that the debut in China allowed the organization to present the 1000 Miglia to a completely new market, highlighting the event's significance alongside its sporting heritage. This expansion into China reflects the 1000 Miglia's commitment to celebrating automotive history on a global scale, cultivating international appreciation for classic car culture, and strengthening ties between automotive enthusiasts worldwide.

4.5 Regulatory Developments

As highlighted in the 2024 Collectible Car Survey administered by AssetClassic in collaboration with McKinsey & Company, one of the key concerns of collectible classic car enthusiasts and professionals is tied to future limitations due to regulatory developments in the space. While regulations vary across jurisdictions, a global emphasis on sustainability is fostering widespread apprehension. While 2024 did not see sweeping regulatory changes specific to classic cars, significant discussions and initiatives set the stage for potential impacts.

In the United States, the 25-year import rule continued to enable enthusiasts to bring vintage vehicles into the country, exempting cars older than 25 years from modern safety and emissions standards. However, California’s policies remained at the forefront of environmental regulation. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) explored the creation of zero-emission zones that could restrict the operation of classic cars in certain areas. Additionally, CARB’s survey targeting pre-1978 vehicles has fueled speculation about future restrictions, raising concerns among enthusiasts.

Across the Atlantic, the European Union's proposed 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales remains a centerpiece of its climate agenda. Designed to accelerate the shift to zero-emission vehicles, the plan has faced mounting criticism from industry groups and member states concerned about its feasibility and economic consequences. Countries such as Italy and the Czech Republic have called for early reviews or amendments, citing risks to their automotive sectors. As of December 2024, the EU has neither abandoned nor delayed the plan, but debates continue, particularly regarding its broader implications. While the proposed ban targets new vehicle sales, the lack of clarity regarding the circulation and preservation of classic cars leaves room for further dialogue and refinement.

Globally, sustainability pressures are influencing conversations about the future of classic car ownership and usage. While no immediate changes have been implemented, the sector’s players are encouraged to stay informed and proactive in engaging with policymakers to safeguard the legacy and enjoyment of these vehicles.

5. 2025 outlook

Throughout the year, our conversations with key individuals and organizations in the classic car market provide a few insights for 2025. Our current perception is a mix of optimism and caution across the sector, shaped by regional dynamics and collector trends. In Germany, for example, the consensus seems to point to a slowing market, reflective of broader economic challenges and more conservative consumer behavior. Meanwhile, we perceived the sentiment in the United States to be markedly more positive. Experts are attributing this bullish outlook to lower interest rates and an election result locally perceived as supportive of economic growth. This optimism is expected to fuel renewed market activity, particularly for high-quality, well-documented cars, with originality remaining a key value driver. In general, many agree that very original vehicles will continue to outperform the market average, reflecting a consistent demand for authenticity. Interestingly, apart from standout players like Singer, there is little evidence to suggest significant appreciation for restomod vehicles in the secondary market, reinforcing the preference for unaltered classics. These perspectives highlight a diverse yet interconnected global market where regional conditions and collector preferences will play pivotal roles in shaping 2025.

For collectors navigating the classic car market in 2025, focusing on the fundamentals will be crucial for both enjoyment and financial performance. As the market increasingly rewards select vehicles, those that combine strong provenance, comprehensive documentation, and originality will command the highest premiums. Collectors are advised to prioritize cars with verified histories and, where possible, seek out models with certifications from recognized institutions or marque-specific registries, as these add credibility and long-term value. Investing in top-tier assets – those with iconic status, limited production runs, or significant historical relevance – remains a reliable strategy for achieving financial returns. Given the premium placed on authenticity, careful due diligence during acquisition is more important than ever, particularly in a market where selectivity continues to drive performance.

In 2025, classic car enthusiasts can look forward to remarkable new events, including especially the first editions of Cavallino Classic Sydney and Retromobile US. Cavallino Classic, widely regarded as the premier Concorso d’Eleganza dedicated exclusively to Ferrari, will make its debut in the Southern Hemisphere at Sydney’s stunning Palm Beach Golf Club. This highly anticipated event, a collaboration between Ferrari Australasia and Cavallino, will offer collectors and enthusiasts in the region an opportunity to engage with the global Ferrari community. The Concours will feature the same successful format of Palm Beach and will adhere to the rigorous judging standards that have defined Cavallino Classic's prestige.

Equally exciting is the announcement of Retromobile US, marking the first expansion of Paris’s legendary Retromobile exhibition to American soil. Since its founding in 1976, Retromobile Paris has been celebrated as one of the world’s most prestigious classic car events, renowned for its unique blend of high-caliber auctions, exhibits, and participation from top manufacturers, collectors, and clubs. The U.S. edition will bring this legacy to a key market for classic cars, fostering stronger transatlantic ties and highlighting the shared passion for automotive history. By creating a new platform for collectors, industry professionals, and enthusiasts to connect, Retromobile US not only emphasizes the increasing global interest in classic cars but also strengthens the dialogue between regions that are essential to the vibrant collector car community.

2024 was a bumpy year for valuations, but a year full of new sings of maturity and growth opportunities for the sector. We’re looking forward to seeing what 2025 has in store, and to doing our small part in contributing to the community based around our shared passion.